Saturday, March 16, 2013

Colorado Marines 2013 Preview

A trip to the World Series, and a disappointing EMLCS exit in back-to-back years, the Marines return once again eyeing a return to the big stage to bring him the elusive Hello Kitty trophy they have been striving for. Colorado has created for itself an impressive core of under 30 studs, with their oldest every day player likely to be the 32 year old Alex Rios. Many of the main cogs from their '11 and '12 runs, therefore, return to create a familiar looking Marines team from years past. But in addition to their core, the Marines made some big offseason moves of their own to bring in coveted 23 year old star Jason Heyward to create what GM Eric Posch hopes is an all-star outfield for the next decade.

The lineup for this year looks to be pretty balanced and formidable:


CATCHER: Carlos Ruiz/Matt Wieters
A perfect platoon situation behind the dish. Ruiz provides his typical elite defense and OB numbers against righties, as well as also bringing some surprising (PED inspired?) power numbers to the table against righties. Former #1 pick Wieters will due his best poor-man's Posey impression against lefties, getting on base at a strong clip with moderate power and elite defense. Management still hopes Wieters can become a complete every day catcher, but this platoon has made for a consistent team at one of the game's hardest positions to fill for 3 straight years.

FIRST BASE: Joey Votto/Martin Prado
Perhaps the most impressive thing about this 2013 Marines team is that in spite of their goals to be right back in the mix immediately, injuries took hundreds of plate appearances from their key stars. First base is one such example, where the incredible Joey Votto will be limited to a platoon role of mashing righties. The versatile newcomer Martin Prado will pick up his first base glove against lefties as a pest at the top of the order.

SECOND BASE: Martin Prado/Howie Kendrick
Martin Prado will find himself manning second more often than not, however, as his offensive prowess makes up for Howie Kendrick's defensive advantage against righties. Kendrick will see time here against lefties, and these two players' position flexibility will give manager Posch options in the late innings.

SHORTSTOP: Erick Aybar/Alex Gonzalez
Easily the weak point of this year's Marines club. Aybar will see the great majority of time at short, and while his offensive numbers are very strong against lefties, he is a #9 slap-hitter at best against righties. His solid defense will give him value to justify his presence in the lineup. The Marines also brought back slick-defender Alex Gonzalez in the draft to fill in for Aybar against righties for about 25 games, as Gonzalez offers equally sound defense in addition to offering better pop and on base abilities.

THIRD BASE: Evan Longoria/Eric Chavez
Another area where injuries will limit the Marines this year, Longoria will be constrained mostly to platoon time against lefties, where his job will be to make former teammate Cliff Lee weep with his incredible power numbers. Playing most of the season against righties will be the resurgent Eric Chavez, who offers adequate defense to go along with above-average power and on base numbers at the hot corner. Martin Prado may see some time here throughout the season as well.

LEFT FIELD: Alex Rios
The Marines purchased an Alex Rios shaped lottery ticket in last year's draft and it paid off big in 2013. Rios bounced back with a big year, with power, speed and defense all making him a strong everyday outfielder. His OB numbers are not elite and his DP numbers are a bit uncomfortable, but the Marines couldn't ask for a better '4th outfielder.'

CENTER FIELD: Matt Kemp/Justin Upton
Matt Kemp is the third cornerstone of the Marines offense who missed significant time last season. He will primarily be a platoon guy to murder lefties, but has enough at bats to see time against righties, too. Spotting him against righties will be Justin Upton. Upton also had a 'down year' due to a lingering thumb issue, but reunited with his brother in a stacked Atlanta lineup could create an opportunity for another elite card. For now, he will mostly provide good OB units and adequate defense in center.

RIGHT FIELD: Jason Heyward/Justin Upton
The offseason's prize acquisition will bear the heavy load of a right field platoon in 2013. He will bring his Gold Glove to Colorado and man right field with his 1, while giving pitchers fits with his combination of power, OB ability and speed. He will yield the field to J-Up against lefties since Justin likes to walk a lot.

DESIGNATED HITTER: Corey Hart
The forgotten piece in the Heyward deal, Hart will fill the Pujols-sized shoes commendably. While he won't win any awards, he brings solid OB numbers to go with strong power against both lefties and righties.


STARTING PITCHING: Perhaps the crown jewel of this year's club. The rotation is loaded 1-4, with the #5 spot also filled at a high level for much of the season:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jake Peavy
3. Matt Cain
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Alex Cobb/Anthony Bass

RELIEF PITCHING:The Marines ended the season with 0 projected bullpen keepers, so had to patch together something through trade and draft. Overall, their bullpen is not elite, but has some strong pieces who largely fit and roleplayers who by and large fit well in Yankee Stadium and will be able to shoulder whatever the starting pitcher can't finish:

Kenley Jasen, Koji Uehara, Craig Stammen, Bryan Villarreal, Luis Avilan, JJ Hoover + minor league callups of Steve Johnson/Nick Vincent when needed.

Bench: What bench?? Most of these spots will be filled by platoon guys sitting against their lesser half. The lone exception to this was mid-round draft pick Nolan Reimold who will fill the Jason Giambi role this season, giving the Marines a pinch hitter for one of their weaker bats who has monster power numbers and tons of ballpark units which will fit great in their cozy home park. Roleplayer Irving Falu lingers in the minors in case of injury.

Team Strengths:

1. Starting pitching - It's hard to give GM Posch too much credit for putting this rotation together, considering they would do well in any ballpark. But given their home stadium, pitchers with high Ballpark Units could get tattooed and this collection of starters provide both elite numbers as a whole while limiting the power damage. A rotation with Cain and Cueto going 3 and 4 will win a lot of games.

2. Well balanced offense - Lefties get hit especially hard, but Posch made sure he put together a group of guys that would be fierce against the majority of pitchers in the league as well. Prado/Ruiz/Votto/Heyward will be a nuisance 1-4 every game for righty pitchers, with Rios, Chavez and Hart offering pop behind them and Justin Upton looking like a pretty darn good #8 hitter.

3. Youth - Not a tangible advantage for 2013, but the Marines are not going anywhere any time soon for their league rivals. Votto, Kemp, Heyward, J-Up, Longoria, Wieters, Cain, Felix, Cueto, Jansen: all under 30, all primed to be stars for the next few years. The Marines also picked up about 10 scratch cards in the draft who may or may not yield benefits.

Team Weaknesses:

1. Defense - Not awful, but Posch had grown to enjoy the 1 parties of the last couple years, and in 2013 the lineup will only feature 2-3 1's on any given day. The platoon of 3's in CF will also hurt a bit. They have no 4's, however, which will limit the damage.

2. Speed - The lack thereof. True, Prado, Heyward, Aybar and Rios offer some stealing ability, but by and large this team is rather benign on the basepaths, and features no true speedster to make opposing pitchers sweat.

3. Relief pitching - Jansen and Uehara are a strong 1-2, but Uehara lacks innings, and behind them is a patchwork collection of halfway decent, but largely uninspiring arms. With luck, the starting pitching will minimize this deficiency.

Despite the new threat in Napa, and the always meticulous and competitive Lafayette, the Marines feel good about their ability to defend their division title in 2013. Is this the year they finally cross the finish line? (That question is rhetorical, Mark).

2 comments:

  1. LOL, every time I look over your team I go from feeling fairly confident about competing with you for the division title back to just hoping I can get a wild card birth...

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  2. Stacked once again. I see top seed again in the playoffs

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