Sunday, March 11, 2012

Halifax Mooseheads 2012 Outlook

After falling just short of the playoffs last season, the Mooseheads continued their rebuild this off-season in the hopes of reaching the post-season for the first time in franchise history.

Adam Jones was moved along with aging lefty-reliever Scott Downs in order to move into the top 5 of the draft. While Halifax was hoping Canadian wonder-kid Brett Lawrie would fall to them, Desmond Jennings fills a gaping hole in Left Field and should help provide a solid top of the order presence.

Catcher Geovany Soto's inconsistencies finally drove management to send him packing to Reno for a pick which was eventually shipped to Washington for Bud Norris. While the rotation features many solid young arms (headed by Stephen Strasburg), the team needed another good arm in the rotation and swung the deal.

So in a few quick moves, Halifax's off-season (apart from the draft) was done and attention can now be turned to the 2012 season and trying to crack the post-season bubble. After the dust settled, here's how we look:

Starting Pitching:
While Halifax's rotation is still a year away from being where they want it (no Strasburg this year; Morrow & Norris still developing; limited innings from Luebke), it is still lead by work-horse and perennial Cy Young contender Roy Halladay. While Halladay provides a true number 1 atop the rotation, after him, things fall off rather steeply. Cory Luebke will hope his success in pitcher friendly Petco Park translates well away from there as the Mooseheads' first round pick jumps into the number 2 spot in the rotation. Brandon Morrow and Bud Norris are both power pitchers with good upside who had okay-good years, but also had some rough spots. Both will likely be relying on their strikeout ability to pull some Houdini acts this season. The fifth spot in the rotation will be a mix of Bruce Chen (surprisingly good season, but UGH!), Chris Narveson, and Carlos Carrasco. This is definitely the team's weakness and while it has the potential to surprise, Halifax expects to have to score a lot of runs and rely heavily on their bullpen.

Relief Pitching:
This is considered one of the team's strengths this season despite having no "true" closer. Mike Adams, Chris Sale, Jason Motte, David Hernandez and Casey Janssen provide very good innings and each holds a closer's rating. While Adams is once again the star of the group, the depth these 5 provide allows for the Mooseheads to shorten games on their opponents. Extra depth was added in the draft in the form of Sean Burnett, Burke Badenhop, Leo Nunez, Logan Ondrusek and Rich Thompson. That group will serve as the long-men in the bullpen so the main 5 can be maximized in key situations.

Catching:
Jonathan Lucroy will serve as the team's number 1 catcher this season. While he's good defensively and provides decent offense, his numbers aren't stellar. The biggest thing is that he's not a liability. JP Arencibia was added in the draft and provides some thump in the lineup despite an abysmal average and OBP. Arencibia was significantly stronger against lefties and will see most of his time in that role. His defense remains a work-in-progress for the youngster, but with continued development, he could be a force one day for this line-up. Koyie Hill was added late in the draft for his strong defensive skills and one of the finest "swing the bat like a garden-hose" skill-sets out there.

Infield:
The infield is a bit of a mish-mash of players. Starlin Castro is the leader of the bunch who projects to bat #1 or #2 in the batting order. He hits for very good average without excessive strikeouts and good speed. Now if he can cut his errors say...in half (or more), Halifax management might regain some sanity. Adam Lind had a great first half of the season before a back-injury derailed him and hurt his numbers badly. While he can still hit the ball out of the park, his other numbers are worrisome. Aaron Hill provides very good defense at 2B despite having yet another off year with the bat. Halifax hopes he can rebound after his change of scenery and solidify his hold on the position going forward. Chase Headley will be the starting 3B. With good defense, a solid average and good speed, he fits nicely in the bottom of the order. Jack Hannahan's "1" card was added to help boost the infield defense. While he's not a very strong bat, ground-ball specialist Roy Halladay will love seeing his glove at the hot-corner. Miguel Cairo will serve as super-sub and platoon artist extraordinaire, with Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs seeing spot-action.

Outfield:
Perhaps the best move the Mooseheads made was not this off-season, but in the prior one. Included as a throw-in for the rights to pick Jason Heyward, Jacoby Ellsbury recovered from an injury plagued season to post MVP type numbers with a 1 in CF and instantly dramatically improves Halifax's defense and line-up. Over in RF is Jose Bautista, who posted another ho-hum near-MVP season. The two of them back-to-back in the middle of the line-up may be as good as any in the game and will provide trouble for any opposing pitcher. Desmond Jennings will provide good speed and defense in LF for just under half of the season, with Brent Lillibridge, Ben Francisco and Laynce Nix holding down the fort until the prospect arrives.

DH:
Aramis Ramirez gets his own heading. Perhaps he'll feel a little less animosity about being on the trade block this winter? Ramirez posted one of his best season's in years and will anchor the middle of the order while his porous defense will be kept OFF the field. He'll get the majority of the starts with some of the other super-subs getting occasional time here when he needs a day-off.

Overall:
Halifax has improved significantly over last season, with a much stronger offense and improved bullpen. The starting pitching is still a question mark, but with the other improvements, the team should improve. With some very tough opponents in the EML (like juggernaut Colorado Springs), Halifax will need all players to be at their best. They don't need career years, but slumps from the stars will sink this team. If everyone performs up to an appropriate level, the playoff drought may be over. While the thought of missing the playoffs again isn't a favorite, the team has many young pieces moving forward that will help this team continue to develop. In 2013, Halifax will be adding some pitcher from Washington named Stephen Strasburg...until then though, this season still awaits. It should be an exciting one.

W-L Prediction: 88-74 (and hopefully enough for a playoff berth).

2 comments:

  1. Last year, you were my dark horse pick and I wil admit that I am still a Halifax believer. I predict playoffs for you this year.

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  2. This is a tough one. I'm not familiar with all the AL teams, but that rotation migth struggle to make the playoffs.

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