TBA 2012 Draft Review-First round

Back this year is the TBA first round review.    For those new to the league, this is just for fun and only one person’s opinion.   With that said, the first round was a mixed bag IMO.  Some steals, some reaches, and some trades.  Let us not waste any more time.  On to the review.

1)  Mike Trout (London).   The London franchise has tasted success, but now has embraced the rebuilding process.  Badger ownership normally embraces pitching, but has numerous holes on offense.   Many players could have fit here, but London goes for the one with the highest upside in Mike Trout.  Trout is a legit 5 tool star in the making.  He may take a couple seasons to pay dividends, but London can afford to be patient and I feel he will be rewarded with a future superstar.

2) Brett Lawrie (Nassau).   With the reality of Mark “Frying Pan Hands” Reynolds staring him in the face, Nassau opts for the Young Brett Lawrie o be the 3B of the future.  I feel this is a solid pick as Lawrie has the tools to anchor the tough to fill 3B slot for years.  His bat is solid and he has the skills to be a plus defender. 

3)  Michael Pineda (Evanston).  The unquestioned jewel among starting pitchers in this draft, Evanston was pleased to select the young hurler at #3.  Some pundits are concerned with his recent trade from pitcher friendly Seattle to the little league park that is New York.  His fly ball tendencies could cause some  headaches, but no one will question his tools.  He is a high end pitcher for this year and should be a solid pitcher for years to come.  If he can develop his changeup, this can wind up being a steal.

4)  Desmond Jennings (Halifax).  I had guessed Ackley at this spot as Aaron Hill is the incumbent.  Hosmer was another option here, but Ike Davis will get another shot.  Enter Desmond Jennings who will presumably take over LF next to Ellsbury.  I don’t see Jennings as a star, but he should do many things fairly well.  He plays a solid LF, can run a bit, has some pop, and can get on base at a reasonable clip.  I didn’t see Jennings going here, but it is a solid pickup.

5)  Josh Collmenter (Oahu).  This is the first real reach that I see.   With Prince Fielder, Hosmer would not make sense.  Oahu management confirms that they are happy with Neil Walker as their 2B when it passed on Ackley.   Enter Josh Collmenter.   Collmenter came out of nowhere to produce a very solid season and should fill a void on the Glorious Wonder staff.  Collmenter doesn’t have the pedigree of a Pineda, Teheran, or even a Beachy, but he has current value and SHOULD continue to pitch well enough to earn a spot in the rotation for years.  With that said I feel that Oahu may have been able to trade down and still get his man while picking up an additional pick.  However, Oahu was not willing to run that risk and will get a solid pitcher nonetheless.

6)  Eric Hosmer (Mackinaw).  Let’s be brutally honest.  This team is bad and will not be an overnight rebuild.  With that in mind, Mackinaw made the best pick possible in my opinion and has an offensive anchor and solid defensive player in Hosmer.   Hosmer could have gone as early as #1 and I feel is a steal at 6. 

7)  Dustin Ackley (Helena).  Larry did not anticipate Ackley being available at#7 and went out and acquired Omar Infante to fill a gaping hole at 2B.  Much to Larry’s chagrin, he found his hometown boy Ackley available.  Ackley is probably the best 2B available in a deep 2B draft.  While this guy is not a huge fan of Ackley, experts feel that he has the tools to be an excellent 2B with the bat.  The main concern with Ackley is his defense.  The defensive oriented Helena will overlook that for the time being.

8)  Julio Teheran (San Antonio).  I don’t mind admitting that I hoped Teheran would slip to the bottom of the round for me to scoop up.  The realist in me knows that that was unlikely.  Teheran has ace potential and arguably has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the draft.  He will be of little use this season, but San Antonio is willing to be patient.  The only downside to this pick is that Atlanta is extremely deep in young pitching and they may determine that the very young Teheran would be best served spending a full season in the minors.  MAYBE a reach considering San Antonio’s playoff aspirations, but you can’t pass an opportunity to grab a future ace.

9)  Mike Moustakas (Mackinaw).  I will readily admit that I am not a big believer in Mike Moustakas.  With that said, 3B is probably the hardest position to fill so I can understand Mackinaws selection at this point.  I projected Moustakas as a 10-14 talent so this is not a reach at#9.  I don’t forsee stardom, but he should be at worst, an average 3B for a while with potential to be much better.   With the numerous holes in the Mackinaw lineup, I think he made a solid selection. 

10)  Jesus Montero (San Antonio).  With his second pick in the top 10, San Antonio selects one of the best bats available in Montero.  Let’s get it out there right off the bat.  Montero does not have a long future behind the plate nor will he ever be much of a defensive player.  DH is likely his future.  His value playing for the Mariners is likely less than it was with the Yankees.  With that out of the way, Montero is a pure hitter.   He should put up good numbers for an anemic Seattle offense.   John got his man.

11)  Brandon Beachy (Bowling Green).   A nice combination of current and future value.  Beachy will never be an ace, but he does have nice upside and an impressive K rate.  I pegged him going in the 8-10 range so I think Bowling Green got good value at #11.  I am guessing Bowling Green will have a nice #3 for years.

12)  Cory Luebke (Halifax).  Another solid SP in the draft.  The good:  He pitches in a pitcher friendly park, has nice strikeout potential, and puts up a solid WHIP rate while limiting opposing batters to a low BAA.  The Bad:  He isn’t exactly a kid at 27 years old.  He has never pitched more innings than he pitched last year.  I think the good far outweighs the bad.  Solid pickup at this stage in the draft.

13)  Henderson Alvarez (Delaware).  This was an unexpected pick to me.  Not that Alvarez is a bad pitcher, but he has largely been looked over and I rarely hear his name being mentioned.   His minor league pedigree is not one that gets noticed and he does not have a very impressive K-Rate which seems to be a measure of future success to some folks.   Upon further research (yes….I had to do a little reading on him), he has a very powerful sinker that will induce a lot of groundballs (over 50% in his brief MLB experience).  He also has outstanding control for a 22 year old.  Nothing here screams stardom to me, but pitchers who induce groundballs and display excellent control always find a job in baseball and in SOM. 

14)  Brandon McCarthy (Mackinaw).  The rebuilding Mackinaw (formally Old Bridge) franchise steps up to their 3^rd 1^st rd pick.  They got a steal with their pick of Hosmer, made a solid one in Moustakas.   I would categorize McCarthy as questionable.   McCarthy did revive his career that has been riddled with injuries and put up excellent numbers.  He will fill a hole in the Mackinaw rotation.  I know that his targets were likely Beachy and/or Luebke , but felt he had to settle for McCarthy.  While not old by any standards, he isn’t exactly a prospect (29).  His long history of injury will always create a concern.  I think his numbers will be adequate, but fall back to a#4 type level if he stays healthy.  He fills a need, but I think he would have been more valuable to a contender than a rebuilder.   I feel Weeks, Mesoraco, or Kipnis could have been a better option, but Mackinaw did address that in a later deal with Washington.

15)  Freddie Freeman (London).  Excellent pick at this stage and London needed a 1B badly.   Freeman is no Pujols or Cabrera.  However, he should be a steady .280/20 player who has a solid glove.   This was a no brainer pick.  Great addition  late in the first round.

16)  Devan Mesoraco (Washington).  In a draft devoid of high end catching talent, Mesoraco is a great late round pick up.  He is absolutely useless this year, but Joe realizes the potential and scoops him up.  If Joe didn’t, I would have.  He should be solid at the plate and adequate behind it.  Joe Mauer has injuries and age slowly start to creep in.  Talk is that he may start getting some work at 1B.  I think Joe has his insurance policy in place with Mesoraco.  Good value at #16.

17)  Jemile Weeks (Brighton).  The defending champs saw their targets fall one by one.  Realizing that I am not a serious contender this year, I decided to go with one of the good 2B out there (Kipnis/Weeks).  The switch hitting Weeks gets the nod.  With slick fielding Ben Zobrist in the fold, Weeks won’t be expected to carry the burden.  Of course, Zobrist can play a mean RF as well so Weeks will see some reps at 2B.  Everyone should be very aware that any pick by Brighton should not sing a long term lease in town.  There is some chatter of him being moved before the start of the season.

18)  Dee Gordon (KC).  I won’t pretend to be a fan of Gordon.  I see a future as a utility IF.  With that said, it is a very thin shortstop crop this year and Gordon is the top of that list.  I believe KC was looking at Weeks, but he went just before so KC filled an immediate need for Gordon.  Although I don’t think much of his future, Gordon does have some value as a speedster.  Power is non-existent, and he doesn’t have great hands.   While he isn’t the best talent available at #18, he fills a definite need.

19)  Jason Kipnis (Washington).  Another case of best player available.  With Robinson Cano in the fold, Kipnis was not going to get into the lineup in Washington.  This became clear as he was immediately dealt to Mackinaw for future picks.  Mackinaws future infield is ¾ of the way complete. 

20)  Paul Goldschmidt (Oregon).  Oregon decided to get in on the first round activities by swapping his 2013 1^st rounder for Brightons 2012 pick.  Oregon managemet saw the opportunity to add a potential 30 HR guy to a lineup lacking pop.  While his use will be limited this season, he will have value as a pinch hitter.  He is adequate in the field and I expect at least 25 HR (with the usual K’s that come with it) and a passable OBP.  Solid pick

1^st Round Steals:
1)  Eric Hosmer (Mackinaw).  He will be a huge piece of the Mackinaw rebuild.  To get him at #6 is a bargain.

2)  The 2B crop.  Ackley at #7, Weeks at #17, and Kipnis at #19 are bargains in a deep 2B pool.  It is no coincidence that all 3 teams that drafted these guys did not NEED a 2B.  Just could not pass them up at the spots they were picked.

3)  Freddie Freeman (London).  Getting an excellent 1B who does most things well so late in the 1^st round was huge for a London team starving for an offensive identity.

1^st Round reaches:

1)  Josh Collmenter (Oahu).  I am not saying that Collmenter is a poor player.  The reason I put him here is that Oahu is most likely in a rebuilding/retooling phase and Collmenter lacks the upside that a rebuilder generally would covet.  Also, many pundits projected Collmenter as a late 1^st rd pick.  It is my humble opinion that Oahu could have traded down and gotten Collmenter late in the first round while also adding another high pick.  I could be wrong however, and I would be happy if Collmenter was on my team.

2)  Henderson Alvarez (Delaware).  I won’t rehash what Alvarez has going for him.  Read my review for that.  Like Collmenter, I think Alvarez could have been had with a lower draft pick.

3)  Brandon McCarthy (Mackinaw).   Mike Kaminski gets the honor of making the 1^st round steals and 1^st round reaches.  McCarthy has value, but more so to a contending team needing a solid 4^th starter.  Not a team in the beginning stages of a rebuild.