2011 TBA Draft Review: 2nd Round

2^nd Round Review

Now that we have seen my opinion on the first round, I will share my opinion on the second.  A couple surprises.  A couple steals.  Please keep in mind that this is only one mans opinion and no offense should be taken.  I finished with the 4^th worst record so take it with a grain of salt.

1)  Chris Sale-Halifax.  Halifax is in rebuild mode and the lanky Sale could be a nice piece for years.  Sale was drafted and in the majors within a few months and did well in limited time with the Sox.  There has been debate if he would be in rotation or pen.  Looks like he will be a starter.  Only concern is that he pitches in Chicago’s hitter friendly park.  Some also wonder how his slender frame holds out over the long season. 

2)  Mike Minor-Napa.  One of Napa’s many picks is the Atlanta southpaw.  Minor has excelled in the minor leagues and looks to be a fixture as soon as this year for the Braves.  Napa made many trades to acquire these picks (this one from yours truly in Posey deal), so the success of Minor could make or break Napa’s off season.  With that said, this was a solid pick for the rebuilding Napa franchise.

3)  John Jaso-Kansas City.  After trading the #3 pick, KC decided it had to address its gaping hole at catcher with Jaso.  While Jaso does not have the upside of Posey or Santana, he has an outstanding OBP and should be an upgrade on Alex Avila.  As long as he can continue to get on base and not regress defensively, this is a solid pick for a team who is in rebuild. 

4)  Craig Kimbrel-Napa.  Yet another Napa pick.  He goes with the first in a string of RP.  Kimbrel has a shot to be the Atlanta closer.  Kimbrell’s success or failure will hinge upon his ability to throw strikes.  While I feel Kimbrel has a solid upside, I feel the rebuilding Napa team may have been better served grabbing a Smoak or Morrison.

5)  Justin Smoak-San Antonio.  With Ike Davis off the table, San Antonio looks to solidify its aging 1B (Berkman) position with Smoak.  Smoak struggled in his first season in the bigs, but has the pedigree to become an above average 1B.  He is a switch hitter with a solid glove who can take a walk.  There will be some growing pains, but San Antonio can be patient.

6)  Tyler Colvin-Old Bridge.  Old Bridge was in dire need of adding power to it’s lineup.  Alvarez went in round one and now they add Colvin.  Colvin does have some pop in his bat, and can play a solid defensive game.  On the flip side, many are not sold on his upside.  He will need to cut down on his strikeouts and learn to take a few more walks to be considered much more than an average player.  As long as he hits homeruns and plays good D, he will remain employed. 

7)  Joaquin Benoit-Oregon.  Unique pick.  There is no arguing that Benoit is one of (if not the) best RP card in the draft.  On the flipside, Benoit is not a kid and has had mixed results in his previous seasons and many wonder if last year was a fluke.  No one expects Benoit to be lights out like last year.  He goes to Detroit to set up Valverde who had some arm issues next year so he could end up closing some games.  Like Napa earlier, I feel Oregon may have been better served drafting a Morrison or Wood.  May be a moot point as Oregon management shipped Benoit off to Brighton for Matt Guerrier and a draft pick. 

8)  Jose Tabata-Helena.  Tabata is a solid pick.  His ceiling may not be as high as Logan Morrison who was available, but Tabata should be a solid 3^rd OF or at worst and excellent 4^th OF.  He has limited power, but plays a solid LF, can run a little, and gets on base at a solid rate.  As long as he continues to get on base, Tabata should be a solid, but unspectacular OF for years.   

9)  Billy Wagner-Old Bridge.  An odd pick.  There is no question that Wagner is an excellent closer for the season.  There lies the problem as Wagner has officially retired making Wagner a one year card.  This would be fine if Old Bridge was making a run for the playoffs, but he is likely not going to compete for the playoffs this season.  Wagner will not disappoint, but may have been more valuable to a contender.  Perhaps Wagner will be wearing another teams uniform by years end. 

10)  Danny Valencia-Helena.  With Adrian Beltre manning 3B, the pick of Valencia was a little surprising.  Valencia had a solid rookie season, but projects as a utility player in the future.  With that said, Valencia provides a useful card if Helena gets him into the lineup.  He can get on base, has a little pop, and is responsible with the leather.  Like many before him, he may have been better served with a Morrison, but Valencia should prove to be useful in the lineup or as trade bait. 

11)  Travis Wood-Colorado Springs.  Colorado management was targeting Wagner or Benoit, but with them being selected earlier, Eric decided to go with a lefty SP prospect.  Wood does not project as ace material, but should be a solid SP for the Reds.  You can never have too much starting pitching.  If Wood pans out, he should fit in nicely behind King Felix, Johnny Cueto, and Francisco Liriano. 

12)   Logan Morrison-Bartonville.  This was the steal of the round in this guys opinion.  I know of at least 3 GM’s who picked later in the round (including yours truly) who drooled over the possibility that he could slip to them.  Jay put an end to those dreams by selecting Morrison.  Lets face it.  The defense probably scared away many GM’s, especially those in the National League.  However, his OBP is elite and he has the skill level to be an excellent player.  If he can rediscover some of the power that he flashed in the minor leagues and improve his defense, Bartonville could very well have the steal of the draft.

13)  Sean Rodriguez-Brighton.  With it’s original targets off the board (Benoit, Wagner, Morrison), Brighton decided to go with youth and versatility for it’s NL club.  This may have been a reach, but Brighton has plans to make the playoffs and Sean-Rods ability to play almost every position (save catcher and 1B) was appealing.  He hits lefties well and is defensively solid at 2B and the OF.  Sean-Rod didn’t get a chance to meet the Brighton media as he was quickly shipped off in a deal to solidify it’s rotation in a deal for Brett Myers. 

14)  Mitch Moreland-Bowling Green.  Bowling Green would have probably liked to have seen Ike Davis or Justin Smoak drop to him, he went with Moreland to help out at 1B.  Some would contend that Gaby Sanchez may have been a better pick, but Moreland’s solid OBP and good power will come in handy.  Moreland does not project to be anything more than an average at best 1B, but he won’t hurt Bowling Green.  His major weakness this season is his limited at bats. 

15)  Gaby Sanchez-Napa.  This was the last chance to get a useable 1B, and Napa could not pass up Sanchez.  With the aging and slipping Carlos Pena as the starting 1B, Sanchez should provide insurance.  He has a solid OB, decent power, and doesn’t strikeout a ton.  On the flipside, he is a little older for a prospect, not great defensively, and I feel this is his ceiling.  If Sanchez can duplicate this season, Napa would be content as they have their 1B/DH of the future.  Solid value at this spot.

16)  Peter Bourjos-Helena.  Helena used his 3^rd pick of the round to select the slick fielding CF, Peter Bourjos.  Let’s face it, his lone value this year is as a defensive replacement.  However, he has good speed to go along with that glove.  He also hit well at the end of the season to give Helena hope for the future.  He is young and will be given every opportunity to start for the Angels this year.  I believe Bourjos will sink or swim.  Will he be Franklin Gutierrez with speed or will he be Carlos Gomez?

17)  Clay Hensley-Edgewater.  A career journeyman/fringe pitcher, Clay Hensley had a rebirth in Florida last season and Eddie was happy to pick him in the late 2^nd round.  Edgewater had a need to solidify the pen and Hensley helps on that front.  Will Hensley repeat his performance?  Unlikely.  Is he a high end prospect?  Nope.  Is he an excellent bullpen arm to help a team get into the playoffs?  You bet he is. 

18)  Shawn Marcum-San Antonio.  San Antonio saw the opportunity to grab a younger SP with solid IP’s in the late 2^nd, and jumped at it.  Marcum’s splits are a bit off, but a move to the National League and getting out of Toronto’s hitter friendly park bode well for a potential breakout season for Marcum.  Solid value in late 2nd. 

19)  Lorenzo Cain-Halifax.  Cain has a solid (but limited AB’s) card for the season.  He is young and has some nice tools.  He is not projected to be a star, but should have a long career as a 3^rd-4th OF who plays good D, gets on base, and can run a bit.  He heads to Kansas City as part of the Greinke deal. 

20)  Jake Westbrook-Napa.  Rounding out the 2^nd round is Napa’s selection of former Indian, Jake Westbrook.  The injury prone, 30-something SP provided solid, but not spectacular innings and seems to be over his injury issues.  Westbrook would be more valuable as a #5 pitcher on a contender, but will be the #2 pitcher for Napa.  I am going out on a limb when I predict Westbrook will not end the season in Napa. 

Steal of the round-

1)  Logan Morrison (Bartonville).  If he can improve his defense and rediscover his power, he could be an all-star.  To get him in the mid 2^nd is a coup. 

2)  Shawn Marcum (San Antonio).  If he responds well to the move to the NL, San Antonio may have picked up a solid #3 for the future. 

3)  Peter Bourjos (Helena).  This will be a all or nothing player IMO.  If he can get the average and OBP up, he could be a gold glove caliber CF with good speed/pop combo. 

Questionable picks of the round-

1)  Billy Wagner (Old Bridge).  Again, it isn’t that Wagner doesn’t have great value for the season, but he is retiring and would have been a better pick for a contender.

2)  Joaquin Benoit (Oregon).  Similar to Wagner, he would have more value to a serious contender.  Oregon did however deal Benoit.

3)  Craig Kimbrel (Napa).  I do not question that Kimbrel could be good.  I personally am not a fan of drafting a RP early if in rebuild mode.  With Morrison, Wood, Smoak on the board, this may have been a reach.  I will say however, that if Kimbrel gets his walks under control, he has the potential to prove me wrong.  

--Mark Moilanen