The Bowling Green Bowlers improved from 82 – 80 in TBA’s inaugural season to 95 – 67 in 2010, an improvement of 13 games. The credit for the leap in wins has to go (mostly) to the pitching, which posted an Edgar Martinez League-best 3.78 ERA. That was an improvement of over 0.50 points versus last year’s 4.34 ERA.
Better fielding has to also get some of the credit. Last season, 114 errors contributed to 83 unearned runs and an X-play percentage of only .697. This season, only 73 errors were committed (13 by pitcher Scott Feldman, no less!), leading to 37 unearned runs and a much more respectable X-play percentage of .749.
The hitting stayed about the same (.263 AVG and 803 runs in 2009 versus .265 and 802 in 2010), despite a BIG drop-off in homers (220 vs. 164). The loss of Carlos Delgado and Xavier Nady, as well as significant drop-offs in HRs from Jim Thome, Nate McLouth, and Ryan Ludwick all contributed. In 2009, that group of five pounded 160 HRs, while in 2010, they managed only 54.
A pre-season predicted finish of 4th place really got me fired-up to show that this team was noticeably improved over last year…….Although, I don’t think anyone (including myself) thought that winning the division was in the cards! (no pun intended) After taking the division lead on May 4th, BOW never looked back. Although, a late-season surge by Napa did leave the finish in question right down to the wire.
Looking ahead to 2011, most of the core is pretty much intact.
Catcher - Kurt Suzuki will continue to hold-down the catching duties, although his bat did slump a bit last year (.242 / 13 / 71) and his throwing arm is expected to slip from a -1 to a 0.
First Base - There was hopes of 2nd round pick Kyle Blanks’ big bat holding down this position in 2011, but now that will probably have to wait until 2013 while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Jorge Cantu is still an option; although I am seriously looking to cut him loose, as his bat continues to digress (.256 / 11 / 56).
Second Base – Kelly Johnson made a nice resurgence in his move from ATL to ARI (.284 / 26 / 71). His 36 doubles , .369 OBP, and 13 SB are all plusses. His Lamanna-predicted 2b3e10 is passable.
Third Base – Brandon Inge is still willing and able to secure the hot corner. His defense (predicted 3b2e11) is never in-question, but I may be looking for a bigger bat than his .247 / 13 / 70 can provide.
Short Stop – Derek Jeter’s 324-consecutive TBA game “Iron Man” streak may be in-jeopardy with the league, as his .270 / 10 / 67 / 18 SB is a far cry from last year’s EML Silver Slugger-winning performance. Also, I can’t imagine that I’ll be batting him in the 2nd spot versus RHP in 2011. Although he won an MLB Gold Glove in 2010 with his measly 7 errors, most folks figure his reduced range will put him firmly in the “3” range factor, which is tough to take at SS.
Utility Infielder – Jamey Carroll did an excellent job holding-down most of the duties at 2B last season. But with K. Johnson back in-form, Jamey will be reduced to a back-up role, despite his .381 OBP. A finally healthy, switch-hitting Jed Lowrie showed some power in his late-season action with the Red Sox (.287 / 9 / 24 in 171 AB)….and he can play all four infield positions.
Outfield – Unless I can draft a decent CF, Scott Podsednik (.297 / 6 / 51 / 35 SB) and Ryan Ludwick (.251 / 17 / 69) will probably be covering that position while Nate McLouth (.190 / 6 / 24) attempts to bounce-back from a horrible 2010 campaign. Nate will be semi-usable vs. RHP, but his “4” glove will be shuffled over to LF. Melky Cabrera is also an option (.255 / 4 / 42), but he showed no power in his move to ATL, lost what little speed he had, and digressed in the field….probably not a keeper.
DH – Despite limited action with MIN, Jim Thome made the most of his playing time. Although he got only 276 ABs, he clubbed 25 HRs and had an OPS of 1.038. He’ll be holding-down the clean-up spot vs. RHP as much as possible. A declining Jorge Posada (.248 / 18 / 57) will again probably serve as back-up catcher and platoon with Thome at DH.
Starting Pitching – If you take the 2010 MLB records of CC Sabathia (21 – 7), Bronson Arroyo (17 – 10), Brian Duensing (10 – 3), Tommy Hunter (13 – 4) and Phil Hughes (18 – 8), you would end-up with an amazing 79 – 32 record and a .712 winning percentage! OK, I intentionally left-out Gavin Floyd (10 – 13). Adding his record to the mix would drop the PCT to .664, still impressive. Does this translate to what will happen in TBA Strat?…..not bloody likely, but I thought it was interesting. Bottom-line, I think my rotation is set for 2011, with the possibility of Hughes and Duensing using some of their IPs in the bullpen. Scott Feldman’s 5.48 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with TEX will probably get him released.
Bullpen – This is where it gets ugly. Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Chad Qualls, and Fu-Ti Ni all had horrible seasons in 2010. Regarding “keeper” status: Hoffman and Hawkins are too old to risk a spot, Qualls is questionable to bounce back, and Ni has little-to-no history. That leaves 1st round pick Neftali Feliz to step into the closer role….no complaints there. A strong 2010 finish with CLE may allow lefty Tony Sipp to stay with the staff. A decent season by starter-reliever Nelson Figueroa (93 IP / 3.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP) could make him trade-bait for a contender.
Prognosis: This is what they call a “rebuilding” year for Bowling Green. There are needs at 1B, possibly 3B, and in one OF position, as well as the bullpen. A future SS selection might be wise too. Unless I make some significant trades or major draft pick-ups, BOW will be probably looking to return to a .500 season.
Available for the asking:
C Kottaras / 1B – 3B Cantu / IF J. Nix / OF Mel. Cabrera , R. Willits, M. Stairs (no card = Carp)
Pitchers - S. Feldman / N. Figueroa / T. Hoffman / C. Qualls / B. Donnelly / P. Misch / G. Mota (no card = Ni / Hawkins)
