There have been a history of dramatically bad trades and non-trades in the MLB. On the spectrum of deals that didn't happen, a potential 1995 deal would have sent Yankee prospects Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada to the Reds for David Wells. Ex-Mets GM Steve phillips once offered some guy at single-A named David Wright for Jose Cruz Jr. Yes, the legendary Jose Cruz Jr. wih the career .247/.337/.445 line.
On the other hand, we look back and laugh at some absolutely horrible lopsided deals. One that stands out is one where the Giants decided to trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano (a current Marine), and Boof Bonser to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.
The point of all this is, with prospects you never really know what you're going to get. He could either become an all-star every year (like Mariano Rivera) or crash and burn.
That is why not making any deals for my #1 pick has been a challenge. Needing a catcher and equipped with the #1 overall pick this year seems like a perfect match, but I'm too aware that even the most raved about young players are susceptible to become mediocrities. Turning down trade proposals this offseason that offered very good players for a prospect is a huge risk.
Now, of course, Wieters is different than a guy in single-A. The #1 prospect in baseball mashed his way through the minor leagues, and had a productive enough rookie year in 2009. Also, it's not often that switch-hitting, defensively strong catchers reach the majors and draw comparisons to a breed of Mauer and Teixeira. While this projection is disgustingly optimistic, the fact is that very good catchers are something hard to come by. Even if he's not Maueresque, if Wieters turns out merely 'very good' it will be a #1 pick well spent.
Judging by this this list of BaseballAmerica's top prospect from 1995-2006, however, it seems that about 70% of the time, the top prospect turns out to be at least very good - even if it takes a little while.
2006: Delmon Young
2005: Joe Mauer
2004: Joe Mauer
2003: Mark Teixeira
2002: Josh Beckett
2001: Josh Hamilton
2000: Rick Ankiel
1999: JD Drew
1998: Ben Grieve
1997: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1995: Alex Rodriguez
But, in the end, it's really impossible to do anything more than speculate whether or not Wieters will be worth turning down all-stars for. Come 2015, chances are I'll either be cursing my stupidity at not trading down and drafting threepeat Cy Young winner Tommy Hanson, or I'll be praising my choice to draft the best catcher in baseball.
In the mean time, I will be reading this site and trying to convince myself I made the right move.
http://www.mattwietersfacts.com/
Monday, December 21, 2009
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Wieter's is probably the most hyped O's prospect in quite some time. Some would say year I was a disappointment, but I'm not seeing that. Yes, his first 100 ab's he did struggle a bit, but from there he hit over .300 with more power.
ReplyDeleteSince you have by way of this blog, pretty much stated he is your #1 pick, I hope it works out for you. For many reasons, because if he assumes a prominent role in the O's lineup, it could be the start of a number of good years with the rest of the talent.
If you change your mind on those offers, let me know.
Yeah, I decided that since it was 99% certain that I wasn't going to move the pick, there didn't make much sense dancing around it. It wasn't too big of a mystery, anyway, since Wieters is the consensus #1 pick and I upgraded my pitching with trades.
ReplyDeleteI am sorry if I took away some leverage for the guy with the #2 pick, though :p
I agree with your assessment of his rookie season. Granted, he wasn't the instant messiah a lot of people were expecting, but he's a rookie and people SHOULDN'T expect that. The only thing that's slightly worrisome is his stats were underwhelming when his BABIP was at a more normal level, but I'm not concerned. I think as he grows at the major league level, he won't need luck to help him.
I think you made a good move taking him. Without a catcher he pretty much had to be your pick, otherwise you would be second guessing yourself constantly if/when he becomes an all-star. If you already had a Mauer, then I would think about trading the pick.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I mean, even with an established borderline 'very good' catcher (a Y. Molina for example) I'd be a lot more tempted to trade the pick. But since my best catcher is Gregg Zaun and he's a fringe player for my 20 man, the decision more or less fell into my lap.
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