Draft Preview: Picks 11-20

If you missed the top 10 picks check here. Here's a quick recap:

1) Matt Wieters, Colorado Springs

2) Tommy Hanson, Old Bridge

3) Chris Carpenter, Aberdeen

4) Elvis Andrus, Aberdeen

5) Andrew McCutchen, Aberdeen

6) Rick Porcello, San Antonio

7) David Price, Nassau

8) Gordon Beckham, Halifax

9) Colby Rasmus, London

10) Brett Anderson, Napa

And now the back 10

11) Neftali Feliz (Bowling Green)

This 21-year old has already dominated the major leagues, albeit in only 31 innings. But with a fastball over 100 MPH, owners would love to have this type of potential on their team. The only question is if he can stay dominant in a starting role next season.

12) Dexter Fowler (Oregon)

Oregon will be looking for a starting OF this off-season and with the top SP prospects off the board Fowler fits the bill. With Beltran limited this coming season, Fowler will fit in nicely in CF and then move over to a corner OF spot when Beltran comes back.

13) Jeff Neimann (Loves Park)

Neimann will give Loves Park another solid pitcher in the rotation. Neimann should have a great season and lessen the blow of missing Peavy for half of the season. He would be counted on the help lead the Lemmings back to the playoffs.

14) Alcides Escobar (Brooklyn)

With only Jhonny Peralta qualified to play SS this season the Colts will be looking to add a shortstop this offseason. Escobar would be the perfect fit as he should be able take over full-time following this season. At only 22 years old, he has shown enough offense to think he could be a starter in this league.

15) Andrew Bailey (Washington)

The Booze Hounds are looking for another playoff this year and Bailey would be another weapon out of the bullpen for them. Washington already has a great, young rotation and line-up so Bailey is the obvious choice if he is still on the board.

16) Mat Latos (Reno)

Latos has excelled at every level of the minors he's stopped at. After skipping AAA, Latos looked real good in his 10 start stint in the majors. He is only 21 years old and with a little seasoning could become a big time starter for Reno.

17) Chris Coghlan (Reno)

Coghlan will only drop this far because of poor defensive skills, but Reno should be willing to take a chance here. Coghlan has shown he can hit and would be able to DH for the Aces if need be.

18) Wade Davis (Vero Beach)

Vero Beach already have a good young rotation but it will be hard to pass on Davis. He struck out almost 9 per game in his debut this season and if he develops as expected would give the Bums an excellent top 5 should everyone stay healthy.

19) Trevor Cahill (Edgewater)

Cahill is only 21 years old but could already be placed in Edgewater's rotation for this coming season. He would fit nicely behind Lowe, Oswalt, and Lackey. Although he hasn't pitched in professional ball long, his 10 K/9 in the minors are a big reason will should be a 1st round pick.

20) Garrett Jones (Bartonville)

Bartonville will most likely go with best player available to finish the first round and Jones is just that. A superb showing this past season will give Jones the designated hitter spot to Jones as the Bombers will look to repeat as TBA Champions this season.

In February, the TBA Blog will review these picks and possibly come out with an updated preview.

BOW - quiet off-season

I am amazed, so far, at the number of trades and draft picks that have changed hands since the first of December. I've stayed out of the fray...wanting to wait until after Christmas, when I had some free time to consider what was out there. But as the old saying goes: "when you snooze / you lose" and I have lost-out on some players that I would have liked to add to my own team.

Losing both C. Delgado and X. Nady to injury is going shake-up my line-up for 2010, but other players (Inge / Podsednik / Posada) who were bench players have become regulars.
I thought I was fairly set heading into next season, but Hal threw me a spitball when he gave Callaspo a (deserved) "4" at 2b. At the moment, I'm looking at:

C = K. Suzuki / Posada
1B = Cantu
2B = ?? (Callaspo or K. Johnson)
3B = Inge
SS = Jeter
OF = Ludwick / McClouth / Podsednik / Mel. Cabrera
DH = Thome / Posada
Bench = E. Velez

SP = Sabathia / Feldman / Floyd / Arroyo
RP = Hughes / Beimel
CL = Hoffman / Qualls

I'm still hoping to strike a deal for a better defensive option at 2b before the draft, but I'm not willing to give-up the farm with what's been offered to-date.

Glad to see some energy infused into the league by the new managers...let's hope it lasts until the season starts!

Todd /BOW

Edgewater Giants musings

Hi fellow tba players...i am eddie o reporting on my edgewater giants formerly the clev bandits...last yr i was very disappointed ...i thought my team which i inherited was good enough to make the playoffs...however awful yrs by D lowe, s victorino and jj hardy ruined any chances....and this year's team isnt better statistically so far...with down yrs by hardy and lowe so i have my work cut out......my starters so far look like this

1b l pujols
2b b roberts
ss jj hardy
3b r belliard
lf EMPTY
cf m bourn
rf b abreu
c A.J. Pierzynski

starters

j lackey, r oswalt, d lowe

bullpen
Jeremy Affeldt, carlos marmol, eric gregg , joe nathan

strengths are speed, bullpen, but i have obvious deficiences i will be relying on the draft to get role player types..and of course starters and bullpen guys who can hold it until late in the game

my goal is just to make the playoffs ....and take it from there ....:)

i traded away my first round pick for joe nathan i just didnt want to be thinking about a real good closer for the next few yrs ...and barring injury nathan gives me that ...


Last yr was my first yr playing strat netplay ...i think i learned a little but only time will tell...im excited as all managers are at the beginning of a new season.....cant wait for the draft ...ttfn

2010 Nassau G-Men Depth Chart

the G-Men appear to set in the field but their lack of pitching could be their downfall C- John Baker/Mike Napoli 1B-Nick Johnson/Chris Davis 2B-Emilio Bonifacio/Jeff Baker SS-Rafael Furcal/ChristianGuzman 3B-Mark Reynolds LF-Nick Swisher/Gary Sheffield CF-Franklin Gutierrez RF-Jermaine Dye SP-Cole Hamels/Hiroki Kuroda/Erik Bedard RP-Joakim Soria/Matt Thornton/LaTroy Hawkins/Blaine Boyer ... with the 7th pick in the draft along with 2 3rd round picks and an 11th round pick acquired in trades GM Steve Garafalo will look to shore up the Starting rotation as well as setup and middle relief

Alamos Depth Chart, 2010

John Garcia has spent all off-season looking for improvements to his team. Only one deal was completed but Garcia believes the Alamos are primed for a championship run in 2010. 

C: Montero/Iannetta
1B: Loney
2B: Kinsler
SS: Tejada
3B: Rolen
LF: Bay
CF: Fukudome/Cameron
RF: JD Drew
DH: Hawpe/Hafner

SP: Kershaw

SP: Pineiro

SP: Jurrjens

SP: Happ

SP: Pettitte

RP: Tejeda

RP: Aceves

RP: Rauch

The Alamos are also equipped with the 6th pick in the draft and can go a multitude of directions. Alamos management are keeping quiet as to who they want, although they are known to be highly interested in one player. In the Draft Preview, San Antonio was predicted to take RHP Rick Porcello.

Washington 2010 Depth Chart

A look at the Booze Hounds' depth chart:

C: Mauer
1B: Teixeira
2B: Cano
SS: Tulowitzki
3B: R. Zimmerman
LF: Willingham / Headley
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Carlos Gonzalez / Willingham
Bench: B. Wood, Alberto Gonzalez, G. Kapler, R. Santiago, Dukes

SP: Vazquez, Lilly, Wainright, Nolasco, Scherzer
SP/RP Swing Pitcher: J. Sanchez
Bullpen: Marmol, Breslow, C. Perez, Morrow
Others: E. Santana, I. Kennedy, Samardzija
IR: Sheets

The starting line-up and rotation look set barring the acquisition of another outfielder. The bullpen needs some work, and Washington has some difficult "keeper" decisions ahead. Do they go with prospects like B. Wood, Samardzija, and Kennedy; or do they go for platoon players like Kapler and Gonzalez, or do they hold players looking to rebound in 2010 like Dukes, E. Santana, and Sheets?

Washington Off-Season Report

The Washington Booze Hounds went into the off-season looking to deal depth, prospects, and emering superstars for starting pitching, outfielders, and a closer. In a series of deals, the starting pitching is set while the team is still positioned to acquire OFs and closers.

Review of the Deals:

• In a pre-arranged dispersal draft deal with new team "Old Bridge", Javier Vazquez and Ted Lilly were acquired for emerging slugger Kendry Morales and the disappointing BJ Upton. While Vazquez and Lilly are older, they turned in possibly their best career years in 2009. Morales was stuck beyond Teixeira at 1B and Upon's potential just didn't fit into the Booze Hound's "Going for it in 2010" approach. Old Bridge gets 2 young players to build around.

• After one deal for Pablo Sandoval fell through (with the requisite finger-pointing by both owner/GMs), it took a little over a week to find another suitor for this emerging superstar. After a two-hour marathon AIM session a deal was struck with Oahu. In the 8-piece deal, Sandoval, Church, Iwamura, and John Maine get shipped to the much nicer climate of Oahu for Adam Wainright, Craig Breslow, and Oahu's 1st and 2nd round picks. Oahu gets a young superstar to add to its core, and a few underperforming players that could be useful in a rebuild situation. Washington gets an ace starter along with a solid LH reliever and two nice draft picks that can be used to acquire another OF or build a bullpen. Washington hates to see Sandoval go, but logjams at his positions in a non-DH league, plus the need for more starting pitching made the move seem necessary.

• Washington adds an outfielder and fills a weakness versus LH pitching by acquiring Josh Willingham for its 2nd rounder. Washington had been trying to acquire Willingham since mid-2009, and they finally hooked up with Colorado Springs to make it happen.

Aberdeen not taking the holidays off

Earlier tonight Aberdeen sent Luis Castillo round 2 pick 3, and round 3 pick 3 to Oahu for new DH Russell Branyan and hopeful future 3B Alex Gordon.

We know we gave up a lot for Gordon and Branyan but we really believe in his potential and we really like what Russell can offer us for this upcoming season.

We have also placed Adam Jones on the trade market along with David Ortiz, Dionar Navarro, Mark Teahan and Rickie Weeks. We know that AJ is one of the best young CF in the game but with a very talented group of OF's we already have, we feel that we can make him available.

It should be noted that we will only trade him if we receive a fair offer which will benefit us and improve the club.

Settling in for winter.

As a GM, you're really never done making deals, but for the time being the Marines organization is pleased with the way the team looks for 2010.
After 3 deals on a busy day for Colorado Springs, the Marines made some decisions on the 20 man roster easier on themselves by trading some on-the-fence guys for moderate draft picks.

When the dust settled, 12/23 yielded the following for Colorado:

Gained:
2nd round pick (35th overall)
6th round pick (117th overall)
6th round pick (110th overall)

Lost:
Josh Willingham
Daniel Murphy
Gregg Zaun
Juan Uribe

Colorado still has to decide amongst a few players, but for now, their depth chart is this:

1B - Joey Votto - L
2B - Howie Kendrick - R
SS - Erick Aybar - S
3B - Evan Longoria - R
RF - Nick Markakis - L
CF - Matt Kemp - R
LF - Justin Upton - R
DH - Hideki Matsui - L
OF - Travis Snider - L

SP - Felix Hernandez - R
SP - Cliff Lee - L
SP - Johnny Cueto - R
SP - Jorge De La Rosa - L
SP - Aaron Harang - R
SP - Francisco Liriano – L
SP - Anibal Sanchez - R
SP - Clay Buchholz - R
SP - Homer Bailey - R

RP - Jonathon Broxton - R
RP - Bob Howry - R
RP - Franklin Morales - L

As of right now, their only opening day player over 26 is DH Hideki Matsui. If the young stars align, Colorado Springs has positioned themselves to be competitive in 2010 just one season removed from a last place finish.

Aberdeen depth chart, 2010

Just to take a look briefly at what is expected with the re-vamped Aberdeen IronBirds.

C- Dionar Navarro
1B- Adam LaRoche
2B- Martin Prado/Julio Lugo
3B- Mike Lowell / Gordon
SS- Open
LF- Granderson / Young
CF- Adam Jones
RF- Choo
DH- Branyan / Weeks

SP- Wolf, Lester, Masterson, Smoltz
RP- Rodney, Okajima, Frasor,

With 3 of the top 5 picks we look to vastly improve upon this

Needs:

SS, 3b, SP

We do of course have the option of putting Prado at 3B and Castillo at 2B and then need to find a DH

An Early Look at the 2010 Rookie/Free Agent Draft

The holiday season is here but GM's all across the TBA are busy. With the trade wire starting to slow down these past few days and the calendar moving quickly towards the new year, teams are already assessing their needs and creating their draft boards. Here is the TBA Blog's Predicted Top 10 Picks. 

1) Matt Wieters (Colorado Springs)

Wieters has the number one overall spot wrapped up with Marine management already revealing he will be the first pick. Wieters will add to an already young, but very talented Marine roster.

2) Tommy Hanson (Old Bridge)

Hanson already may be a top 10 pitcher in the league. His 2.89 ERA was 7th best in the National League this season. At only 22 years old this stud could be the ace of Old Bridge for the next 10 years.

3) Chris Carpenter (Aberdeen)

While not a rookie, Carpenter will be available due to his injuries the past two seasons. After leading the National League in ERA this past season, how can Carpenter not be among the top picks of this draft? Aberdeen has three of the top five picks in the draft so age and injury history should not be a concern for them when drafting Carpenter.

4) Elvis Andrus (Aberdeen)

The trade of Stephen Drew has left a hole at short for the Birds. Andrus is the solution. He is only 20 years old and already has one of the best gloves in the game. He is still unpolished offensively, but a great glove and 33 steals make up for his lack of power. 

5) Andrew McCutchen (Aberdeen)

Aberdeen has just traded away Rick Ankiel, once again opening a starting role. McCutchen is the best bet to fill this spot as his righty bat will counter previously acquired Curtis Granderson's lefty bat. McCutchen has a ton of potential and already has shown he can hit the ball. 

6) Rick Porcello (San Antonio)

I'm sure the Alamos would have loved to add Andrus but another starting pitcher can't hurt. Already holding a great starting 5, Porcello will round out the rotation and enable Happ and others to work some out of the bullpen. 

7) David Price (Nassau)

This time last year, Price perhaps could have gone first overall. A year makes a big difference though but Price should be able to go here at number 7. A bit of a sleeper this year, Nassau might be willing to bank on a Price rebound. After all, David is only 23 years old and has already racked up a 7.2 K/9 rate so far in his young career.

8) Gordon Beckham (Halifax)

If Beckham does slip this far, Halifax would love to grab him. He already has shown he can hit and now with his impending move to second his value increases. Beckham would wreak havoc on left-handed pitchers in the Edgar Martinez League and if he can level out his splits should be a future all-star.

9) Colby Rasmus (London)

London sorely needs an impact bat in the outfield and Colby Rasmus could be their answer. Rasmus will need some more seasoning but his ability to play the entire outfield as well as his power bat from the left side should be enough to entice London to make him their #1 pick this spring. 

10) Brett Anderson (Napa)

The new Napa Winers already have an ace in Tim Lincecum but after that the rotation is weak. AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain will fill two but that still leaves two more remaining. Enter Brett Anderson. This lefty comes with tons of hype and Napa should be salivating at the thought of grabbing Anderson at number 10. Along with Lincecum, Anderson could give Napa a 1-2 punch over the next decade that can match up with anyone in the league.

A preview of the rest of the first round will come out next week.

Ankiel to Napa

On Tuesday, 4:18 EST, Aberdeen has agreed to send Rick Ankiel to the Napa Winers for their 5th round pick. "Not the biggest trade we have made, but those rounds you never know what surprise you may end up with."

The bottom line with acquiring Granderson, already having Jones, and the clear option of drafting McCutchen, he just would not have received playing time. He will be happier in Napa and hopefully get a chance to play.

Aberdeen IronBirds

Aberdeen IronBirds move from cold Mt. Sinai, New York.

The IronBirds have made some immediate changes after complaints about team chemistry and payroll. Since moving, the Birds have made the following trades:



SS Stephen Drew sent to Vero Beach for 2B Martin Prado.
While trading a good defensive shortstop is always difficult we feel that 2B Martin Prado will strive in his new home and produce a similar season but a couple hundred more AB's. While we were disappointed in the "2" range, we expect that will improve in the future.

3B David Wright and their 4th round pick sent to Reno for CF Curtis Granderson and Mike Lowell.
Another difficult trade for Aberdeen's management but adding a great CF to an already good OF was an important tool for our off-season. With an OF that now consists of Adam Jones, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo and against lefties, Chris Young.

SP Josh Beckett and CL Ryan Franklin for LAS 1st round and RHP Jason Frasor.
We are very, very excited to have received this first round pick and express disappoint to see Beckett leaving the franchise but should do well for LAS along with Ryan Franklin. This leaves Fernando Rodney as the teams closer and could place Frasor into a set up role.

CL Joe Nathan and 8th round pick sent to Cleveland for CLE 1st round pick and Hideki Okajima.
It was not easy dealing arguably the best closer in baseball, but with an excess and several needs, we felt it in the best interest of the team. This trade now gives the Birds the 3rd, 4th and 5th pick of the draft. In what is expected to be a deep draft, we are quite excited about the possibilities.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are often asked who we are looking at to fill those draft picks. Aberdeen's management will not provide any hints or statements as to what players we are looking at. While it is our goal to always take the best player available, we are obligated to also look at our needs as well.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trade Policy:

Be reasonable.

Wieters, you'd better be damn good

There have been a history of dramatically bad trades and non-trades in the MLB. On the spectrum of deals that didn't happen, a potential 1995 deal would have sent Yankee prospects Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada to the Reds for David Wells. Ex-Mets GM Steve phillips once offered some guy at single-A named David Wright for Jose Cruz Jr. Yes, the legendary Jose Cruz Jr. wih the career .247/.337/.445 line.
On the other hand, we look back and laugh at some absolutely horrible lopsided deals. One that stands out is one where the Giants decided to trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano (a current Marine), and Boof Bonser to the Twins for A.J. Pierzynski.
The point of all this is, with prospects you never really know what you're going to get. He could either become an all-star every year (like Mariano Rivera) or crash and burn.
That is why not making any deals for my #1 pick has been a challenge. Needing a catcher and equipped with the #1 overall pick this year seems like a perfect match, but I'm too aware that even the most raved about young players are susceptible to become mediocrities. Turning down trade proposals this offseason that offered very good players for a prospect is a huge risk.

Now, of course, Wieters is different than a guy in single-A. The #1 prospect in baseball mashed his way through the minor leagues, and had a productive enough rookie year in 2009. Also, it's not often that switch-hitting, defensively strong catchers reach the majors and draw comparisons to a breed of Mauer and Teixeira. While this projection is disgustingly optimistic, the fact is that very good catchers are something hard to come by. Even if he's not Maueresque, if Wieters turns out merely 'very good' it will be a #1 pick well spent.

Judging by this this list of BaseballAmerica's top prospect from 1995-2006, however, it seems that about 70% of the time, the top prospect turns out to be at least very good - even if it takes a little while.

2006: Delmon Young
2005: Joe Mauer
2004: Joe Mauer
2003: Mark Teixeira
2002: Josh Beckett
2001: Josh Hamilton
2000: Rick Ankiel
1999: JD Drew
1998: Ben Grieve
1997: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1995: Alex Rodriguez

But, in the end, it's really impossible to do anything more than speculate whether or not Wieters will be worth turning down all-stars for. Come 2015, chances are I'll either be cursing my stupidity at not trading down and drafting threepeat Cy Young winner Tommy Hanson, or I'll be praising my choice to draft the best catcher in baseball.
In the mean time, I will be reading this site and trying to convince myself I made the right move.
http://www.mattwietersfacts.com/